Steve Peoples

Even without ‘blue wave,’ Democrats take narrow House majority

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats have regained control of the House from President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the midterm elections, powered by a suburban revolt that has threatened what’s left of the president’s governing agenda. But the GOP added to its Senate edge and prevailed in some key races for governor Tuesday, beating back the potential of big Democratic gains across the board. The “blue wave” that some had feared from Election Day never fully materialized. The mixed verdict in the first nationwide election of Trump’s presidency showed the limits of his hard-line immigration rhetoric in America’s evolving political landscape, where college-educated voters in the suburbs rejected his warnings of a migrant “invasion.” But blue-collar voters and rural America embraced his aggressive talk and stances. The new Democratic House majority will end Republican dominance in Washington for the final two years of Trump’s first term with major questions looming about health care, immigration and government spending. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California, who would be in line to become the next speaker, spoke of “a new day in America.” Trump, in a tweet, said that “in all fairness” Pelosi “deserves” to return to her former role as speaker, despite some rumblings in her party. “She has earned this great honor!” But the Democrats’ edge is narrow. With 218 seats needed for a majority in the 435-member Houses, Democrats have won 220 and the Republicans 193, with winners undetermined in 22 races. The president’s party will maintain control of the executive branch of the government, in addition to the Senate. But Democrats suddenly have a foothold that gives them subpoena power to probe deep into Trump’s personal and professional missteps — and his long-withheld tax returns. Early Nov. 7, Trump warned Democrats against using their new majority to investigate his administration. “If the Democrats think they are going to waste Taxpayer Money investigating us at the House level,” Trump tweeted, “then we will likewise be forced to consider investigating them for all of the leaks of Classified Information, and much else, at the Senate level. Two can play that game!” It wasn’t clear what “leaks” he was referring to. It could have been a much bigger night for Democrats, who suffered stinging losses in Ohio and in Florida, where Trump-backed Republican Ron DeSantis ended Democrat Andrew Gillum’s bid to become the state’s first African-American governor. The elections also exposed an extraordinary political realignment in an electorate defined by race, gender, and education that could shape U.S. politics for years to come. The GOP’s successes were fueled by a coalition that’s decidedly older, whiter, more male and less likely to have college degrees. Democrats relied more upon women, people of color, young people and college graduates. Record diversity on the ballot may have helped drive turnout. Voters were on track to send at least 99 women to the House, shattering the record of 84 now. The House was also getting its first two Muslim women, Massachusetts elected its first black congresswoman, and Tennessee got its first female senator. Three candidates had hoped to become their states’ first African-American governors, although just one — Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams — was still in the running. Overall, women voted considerably more in favor of congressional Democratic candidates — with fewer than 4 in 10 voting for Republicans, according to VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 115,000 voters and about 20,000 nonvoters — conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago. In suburban areas where key House races were decided, female voters skewed significantly toward Democrats by a nearly 10-point margin. Democrats celebrated a handful of victories in their “blue wall” Midwestern states, electing or re-electing governors in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and in Wisconsin, where Scott Walker was defeated by the state’s education chief, Tony Evers. The road to a House majority ran through two dozen suburban districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Democrats flipped seats in suburban districts outside of Washington, Philadelphia, Miami, Chicago and Denver. Democrats also reclaimed a handful of blue-collar districts carried by both former President Barack Obama and Trump. The results were more mixed deeper into Trump country. In Kansas, Democrat Sharice Davids beat a GOP incumbent to become the first gay Native American woman elected to the House. But in Kentucky, one of the top Democratic recruits, retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, lost her bid to oust to three-term Rep. Andy Barr. Trump sought to take credit for retaining the GOP’s Senate majority, even as the party lost control of the House. In a tweet Wednesday, he referred to the election results as a “Big Victory.” History was working against the president in both the House and the Senate. A president’s party has traditionally suffered deep losses in his first midterm election, and 2002 was the only midterm election in the past three decades when the party holding the White House gained Senate seats. Democrats’ dreams of the Senate majority, always unlikely, were shattered after losses in top Senate battlegrounds: Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, North Dakota and Texas. Some hurt worse than others. In Texas, Sen Ted Cruz staved off a tough challenge from Democrat Beto O’Rourke, whose record-smashing fundraising and celebrity have set off buzz he could be a credible 2020 White House contender. Nearly 40 percent of voters cast their ballots to express opposition to the president, according to VoteCast, while one-in-four said they voted to express support for Trump. Overall, 6 in 10 voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, but roughly that same number described the national economy as excellent or good. Twenty-five percent described health care and immigration as the most important issues in the election. Nearly two-thirds said Trump was a reason for their vote. One of Trump’s most vocal defenders on immigration, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, lost his bid for governor. Kobach had built a national profile as an advocate of tough immigration policies and strict voter photo ID laws. He served as vice chairman of Trump’s now-defunct commission on voter fraud. The president found partial success despite his current job approval, set at 40 percent by Gallup, the lowest at this point of any first-term president in the modern era. Both Barack Obama’s and Bill Clinton’s numbers were 5 percentage points higher, and both suffered major midterm losses of 63 and 54 House seats, respectively. Several ambitious Democrats easily won re-election, including presidential prospects Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York. Some others played outsized roles in their parties’ campaigns, though not as candidates, and were reluctant to telegraph their 2020 intentions before the 2018 fight was decided. They included New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, California Sen. Kamala Harris, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe Biden.

Trump eyes shift to policy ‘meat’ after rout in Wisconsin

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Donald Trump signaled a shift toward “more meat on the bone” in his policy speeches April 6 amid new signs of campaign discord, a day after his stinging Wisconsin defeat emboldened his critics and pushed the GOP closer to its first contested national convention in four decades. Democrat Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, embraced a tougher approach with liberal rival Bernie Sanders, who beat her in Wisconsin. Still, Sanders’ string of recent primary victories has done little to erode the former secretary of state’s overwhelming delegate lead as the 2016 primary season lurches toward a high-stakes contest in two weeks in New York. “The core issue in his whole campaign doesn’t seem to be rooted in an understanding of either the law or the practical ways you get something done,” an aggressive Clinton declared in an interview on MSNBC. She suggested Sanders “hadn’t done his homework” on specific prescriptions needed to address economic inequality. As the Democratic front-runner tried to undercut Sanders’ recent momentum, Trump’s grasp on his party’s presidential nomination appeared far more tenuous. Senior Trump adviser Barry Bennett shrugged off the Wisconsin loss to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, but he also said the billionaire businessman would soon begin to deliver a series of “presidential, substantive” speeches on his policy priorities. That list likely includes immigration, trade, defense and taxes. “That’s coming,” Bennett said of the shift. “There will be more and more meat on the bone as we go forward.” At the same time, Trump’s team quietly worked to resolve problems with its young delegate outreach operation, a critical tool as the primary campaign speeds toward the possibility of a contest convention. The tension centers on campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, whose management style has alienated some would-be allies on the ground in key states. For example, the campaign over the weekend fired the person running its Colorado operation ahead of the state’s convention on Saturday. The move was confirmed by a person with direct knowledge of the staffing situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The issues come as leading Democrats and Republicans acknowledge a growing likelihood that Cruz could wrestle the presidential nomination away at the GOP national convention in July. While Trump maintains a big delegate lead, Cruz took a big step forward with his win in Wisconsin. The senator has no realistic path to claim the nomination by the end of the primaries on June 7, but he might force a contested convention by blocking Trump from getting a majority of delegates in the state-by-state voting. Trump must win 57 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention. So far, he’s winning 46 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who hopes the year will play out in Cruz’s favor, said the Republican race was “very likely” headed to an open convention. “Ted Cruz will win on the second ballot if not on the way in, and he will unite the party,” Walker said on WTMJ radio in Milwaukee. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, asked if she’s coming around to the idea of Cruz as the nominee, said, “I’m coming around to more like, ‘It looks like it will be a very interesting convention.’” At the same time, Clinton allies were broadening their attacks against Trump to include Cruz, a first-term senator who has often alienated Democrats and Republican alike in Washington. “One of the scariest parts of Donald Trump’s insulting, demeaning and dangerous attack on women is that Ted Cruz might actually be even worse for women,” said Anne Caprara, who leads the pro-Clinton group, Priorities USA. That group worked with the campaign arm of Planned Parenthood to unveil an anti-Trump internet ad on April 6. Meanwhile, attention in both parties shifted toward New York’s April 19 primary elections, where Clinton and Trump hold big leads in early polls. Trump was to address voters Wednesday night in a homecoming of sorts for the New York City native. Former gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino, one of Trump’s state co-chairs, said the campaign received 18,000 requests for Wednesday’s event, although the venue holds just 3,000 people. Said Paladino, a Buffalo-based businessman: “We’ve seen people just coming up saying, ‘Where has he been?’ Thank God he’s here.” As for possible friction in the campaign, Paladino said he’s had no problems with Trump’s campaign manager. “They do have a small staff — probably smaller than they should have — but these guys work 24/7,” he said. “I don’t know how they keep their senses about them.” Cruz, campaigning Wednesday in New York as well, lashed out at “New York values,” which he called “the values of the liberal, Democratic politicians.”
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