Popp coined the phrase "flat is good" earlier this year in his annual forecast for the city. It was an effort to put an upbeat spin on local conditions and contrast Anchorage with Lower 48 communities still confronting the sharp national recession.

So far, things are bearing out Popp's predictions.

Jobs and building activity are actually up a little for the first nine months in Anchorage, compared with the same period of 2008, but things are expected to slow later in the year.

Popp thinks Anchorage at year-end will end up dead even with 2008, just as he predicted early in the year.

There have been some reductions in basic industry jobs like petroleum, but the losses so far have been more than offset by growth in health care, another well-paying industry, Popp said.

As of Sept. 30, overall employment in Anchorage was up 230 jobs, or 0.2 percent, compared to the first three months of 2008.

"We still believe it we will be flat by the end of December," he said.

For the first nine months of 2009, Anchorage has lost 540 goods-producing jobs, but gained 780 jobs in services, a broad category that includes health care, financial services and government.

Anchorage is the headquarters for oil and gas companies operating in Alaska, as well as petroleum contractors, and so far employment in this industry is off 110 jobs.

Construction is down by 390.

Airport jobs saw a decline of 200 workers, mostly because of reductions in international cargo flights. Popp expects further aviation-related reductions when Northwest Airlines and Delta, which have merged, close out their cargo operations at Anchorage's airport.

Popp thinks retail is holding steady based on continued new store openings and expansions. He cited Walmart's expansion of its south Anchorage store and the new Target store in south Anchorage as examples.

There has been only one major chain store closing - Gottschalks - but he noted that the company's space in one location, the Dimond Mall in south Anchorage, has already been filled by another retailer.

Popp is sticking with predictions made earlier this year of a flat 2010, but resumed gradual job growth in Anchorage in 2011 and 2012.

In its mid-year forecast, AEDC said Anchorage's population appears to be stable or even slightly growing because of possible in-migration of people coming to Alaska from the Lower 48 looking for work.

When the Lower 48 economy eventually recovers, this trend may reverse itself.

Anchorage residents also appear to be maintaining higher levels of disposable income than many Americans in the Lower 48, AEDC's mid-year forecast said.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that Anchorage residents earned $12.8 billion in personal income in 2007, 5.4 percent more than in 2006, and that incomes have been growing at a steady 5 percent rate over the last six years.

This will have slowed in 2008 and 2009 because of the recession's effects on earnings from savings and a lower permanent fund dividend in 2009. However, personal income is still expected to increase between 1 and 3 percent yearly between 2008 and 2012.

Tim Bradner can be reached at

tim.bradner@alaskajournal.com.