State fisheries officials are forecasting a return of nearly 40 million sockeye salmon to Bristol Bay in the summer of 2010, with a potential harvest of nearly 32 million reds.
The prediction, announced Nov. 13 by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, is 13 percent higher than the previous 10-year mean of total runs of 35.30 million reds, with a range of 17.83 million to 46.04 million fish.
Bristol Bay's waters have the world's largest sustainable run of wild sockeye salmon, important to commercial harvesters, as well as sport anglers and subsistence fishers.
The combined commercial and sport fisheries provide hundreds of jobs to residents and add millions of dollars annually to the state economy, through harvesting, processing, and firms serving the needs of the commercial and tourism sectors.
The harvest is consumed worldwide, from diners at some of the world's most fashionable restaurants to Alaskans who fill their freezers with sockeye fillets and strips of smoked salmon.
The projected harvest includes 30.53 million fish in Bristol Bay and 1.23 million fish in the South Peninsula fisheries. A Bristol Bay harvest of 30.53 million fish would be 34 percent higher than the previous 10-year mean harvest, fisheries officials said.
Biologists predicted a run of 13 million fish to the Naknek-Kvichak district; 10.63 million reds to the Egegik district, 4.5 million fish to Ugashik district; 10.61 million fish to the Nushgak district; and 1.02 million fish to the Togiak district.
In the summer of 2009, the run came in 19 percent above the forecast. Harvesters netted more than 32 million salmon of all species - worth nearly $130 million - including 30.90 million sockeyes, the seventh largest such harvest since statehood. That harvest came from an inshore run of 40.43 million fish, which was 7 percent above the 20-year average of 37.68 million reds, and 20 percent higher than the preseason forecast of 33.78 million fish.
The big surprise of the season was that despite a cold winter and late spring, there was an early run of sockeyes in the bay, and that the run vastly exceeded the forecast. Fishermen said the warm, calm weather at the height of the run was the best in 28 years.
All districts came in above forecast, mostly notably the Ugashik and Egegik districts at 64 percent and 33 percent above forecast, state biologists said. The Nushagak district total run was 12 percent above forecast, while the Togiak and Nakenk-Kvichak districts were 15 percent and 7 percent respectively above the forecast.
