Arctic LNG-2 extends Russia’s reach in Asia
Russian-led ventures earlier this month announced plans for two more liquefied natural gas terminals that would double the country’s production capacity by the mid-2020s.
One is in the Arctic and the other in Russia’s Far East, and both are counting on Asian buyers to take much of the LNG.
Arctic LNG-2 will aim to send 80 percent of its output to Asia, Leonid Mikhelson, CEO of project leader Novatek and Russia’s richest businessman according to Forbes magazine, said after the development partners signed a final investment decision Sept. 5.
And it’s not just China, which is on its way toward becoming the world’s biggest LNG consumer and is a 20 percent partner in Arctic LNG-2. Japan is a partner in the venture, too, one of the largest in the history of Japanese-Russian relations, said Japan’s Industry Minister Hiroshige Seko.
“It will unite Japan and Russia even more, as well as Europe and Asia. The Japanese government will provide all necessary assistance for the realization of this project,” the minister said as company officials announced the final investment decision at the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia’s Pacific port of Vladivostok on Sept. 5.
On the same day at the forum, Novatek, which holds a 60 percent stake in the $21 billion Arctic LNG-2 project, announced a joint venture with marine shipping company Sovcomflot to purchase, finance and operate a fleet of 17 new ice-class LNG carriers for year-round transit through the Northern Sea Route to buyers in Europe and Asia.
The vessels will be built at the new Zvezda shipyard, developed with Russian oil and gas producer Rosneft and with assistance from South Korea’s world-leading LNG carrier shipbuilders. The $4 billion shipyard is near Vladivostok, in the Russian Far East.
Novatek, which developed Russia’s first LNG project in Siberia, Yamal LNG, will benefit from extremely low-cost gas at Arctic LNG-2, helping it compete against gas from the U.S. and Canada, Wood Mackenzie analyst Nicholas Browne told Reuters.
Arctic LNG-2, at 19.8 million tonnes annual capacity, is scheduled to start production in 2023, reaching full capacity by 2026. Yamal is at 16.5 million tonnes annual capacity. Global LNG production capacity this spring totaled almost 400 million tonnes per year.
“Novatek is clearly driving home their ambitions to be a global LNG powerhouse,” Chong Zhi Xin, associate director of gas, power and energy at analysts IHS Markit, said to Reuters on Sept. 5.
Novatek’s partners in Arctic LNG-2 are France’s Total, China’s National Petroleum Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp., and the Japan Arctic LNG consortium comprised of Mitsui and state-owned JOGMEC, formally known as Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp.
“This is an important project for Russia and follows our strategy to create capacities for LNG production,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at the forum in Vladivostok.
It’s the largest LNG development to reach an investment decision this year, said global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, bringing to 63 million tonnes total project commitments in the first eight months of this year as suppliers look to meet growing demand.
Meanwhile, Gazprom, which operated Russia’s only LNG export terminal until Yamal started up two years ago, is looking to expand its operation in the Far East and also build a new liquefaction plant and marine terminal on the Baltic Sea.
If all of the projects move ahead, Russia would push its way on the top-four leaderboard of global LNG production capacity with Qatar, Australia and the United States, a fast climb from its No. 10 spot just a decade ago.
The Baltic project, which would include an LNG plant and petrochemical operation, has been estimated at almost $14 billion, with 10 million tonnes annual LNG production capacity. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said last month it would be impossible to build without government support, and soon after Russia’s state development bank VEB said it would invest up to 111 billion roubles ($1.68 billion) in the project. Reuters reported this summer that Russia’s National Wealth Fund also will help finance the Baltic investment.
The government is helping with Arctic LNG-2, too. Novatek will get a reported $600 million in additional tax deductions for building the port, along with the Russian government covering more than half the construction budget at the port and channel, according to reports in Norway’s Barents Observer newspaper.
Novatek also will receive about $160 million in property and income tax breaks from the regional government for its investment in a $1.6 billion construction yard near Murmansk, about 1,000 miles west from the project site, where it will build 1,000-foot-long concrete and steel platforms that will be towed and installed at Arctic LNG-2, the newspaper reported.
In the Russian Far East, shareholders in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project have decided to build their own liquefied natural gas plant and export terminal at the mainland port of De Kastri, about 150 miles from the offshore oil and gas fields. Sakhalin-1 has been producing oil for almost a decade, with production of about 200,000 barrels a day in 2017, while the partners have considered options for selling the gas.
The four partners in Sakhalin-1 are Rosneft, ExxonMobil, Japan’s SODECO and India’s ONGC Videsh. The partners had been talking with Gazprom about selling or sending their gas through the Sakhalin-2 liquefaction plant, but Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin announced on Sept. 5 that the Sakhalin-1 partners would build their own LNG plant, according to press reports
Gazprom, Russia’s top gas producer, leads Sakhalin-2, where the partners plan to expand production capacity from the current 9.6 million tonnes of LNG per year. Gazprom has not issued any statements about the Rosneft-led effort to build a competing LNG terminal that also would draw on gas fields offshore Sakhalin Island.
Sakhalin-2 went online in 2009. The company and its partners Shell and Japan’s Mitsui and Mitsubishi have been working toward an expansion for several years but are not yet at the final investment decision stage.
Larry Persily is a former Alaska journalist, state and federal official who has long tracked oil and gas markets and projects worldwide. He is the Atwood Chair of Journalism at the University of Alaska Anchorage School of Journalism and Public Communication.